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"Longview Economics takes a contrary view and notes total capital expenditure growth for these big four iron ore miners is growing at a slow rate. Even if this growth rate speeds up, several years are expected to lapse before any meaningful supply expansion occurs, as new mines take between three and five years before commencing production.

Based on this poor supply outlook and a growing number of Chinese stimulus measures for the economy, Longview sees an increasingly encouraging outlook for iron ore prices, with one main caveat: China’s attachment to zero Covid policies."

"Longview Economics expects oil prices will collapse in a similar style to what occurred in both 2008 and 2014, and reach around US$50/barrel.

A better supply outcome and recent rising concerns about a US/global recession, explains Longview, has resulted in a fall of -35% for oil prices since June highs."

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