The State of Markets: “Tech Rally – Losing Steam?”
Despite a strong start to the week, both the S&P500 and NASDAQ100 have rolled over in the past 24 hours. That weakness has been led by key tech (‘leadership’) stocks – with NVIDIA, for example, trading down over 3% today (at the time of writing). Of interest, its price is also down since Wednesday, when its earnings (EPS of $1.08) beat expectations (of $1.01), albeit only just. As the chart below shows, the NVIDIA share price is broadly flat since late July. Typically, when equities struggle to rally on bullish earnings, it’s a sign of buyer exhaustion and crowded positioning. Other tech (growth) stocks, which are also trading lower today, include Meta (-1.4%) and Tesla (-2.9%), as well as key semiconductor names Micron (-2%) and Broadcom (-4.3%).
After a strong, multi month rally in US equities, therefore, the key question is: Will US equity markets pause for breath and soon start to consolidate their gains? Or, will there be a bout of weakness (which is normal at this time of year)?
Next week it’s all eyes on the US labour market, with JOLTS job openings (Wednesday); Challenger job cuts & ADP (Thursday); followed by nonfarm payrolls on Friday. Other key US data includes ISM manufacturing (Tuesday) and ISM services (Thursday). In Europe it’s inflation week with the first estimate of Eurozone CPI for August due on Tuesday, followed by PPI on Wednesday. Elsewhere there are manufacturing PMI reports for several Eurozone economies on Monday (flash estimates for August); a speech by Lagarde (Wednesday); and Eurozone retail sales on Thursday. US markets are closed on Monday for Labour Day.
Please see below for a full list of key data and events.
Key chart: NVIDIA share price (USD/share), with 50 & 200 day moving averages
Upcoming Important Data/Events This Week:
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Events: |
Market holiday in the US & Canada on account of ‘Labor Day’ (Mon); Fed releases Beige Book (Wed, 7pm); speech by the ECB’s Lagarde at ESRB event (Wed, 8:30am). |
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Monday: |
UK Net consumer credit, mortgage approvals & M4 money supply (July, 9:30am). |
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Tuesday: |
US ISM manufacturing PMI (Aug, 3pm); EZ headline & core CPI (Aug first estimate, 10am). |
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Wednesday: |
US JOLTS job openings (July, 3pm); Eurozone PPI (July, 10am). |
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Thursday: |
US Challenger job cuts (Aug, 12:30pm); US ADP employment (Aug, 1:15pm); US ISM services PMI (Aug, 3pm). |
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Friday: |
US nonfarm payrolls, hourly earnings & unemployment data (Aug, 1:30pm); Japanese ESRI leading index (July first estimate, 6am). |
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Key earnings: |
Broadcom (Thurs). |
Key Research
Longview on Friday, 29th August 2025:
“Debt, Reserve Status, and Diverging Bond Markets”
Nervousness in the bond market has grown this week, with long end government yields making new highs in several key markets. Yesterday Japanese 30 year yields reached a multi-year closing high (of 3.14%, see FIG 1). Elsewhere UK, German, and French 30 year yields have pushed out to new highs (e.g. see FIGs 2 & 3 below). The US curve has also steepened at the long end, with 30 year yields staying stubbornly high (despite lower/stable 5 & 10 year rates, see FIG 10).
As such, the market chatter has become increasingly bearish, with investors, academics, and commentators starting to worry about a paradigm shift in the global bond market – away from relative stability, and into a ‘crisis phase’.
Key North American Macro Data & Events:
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Events: |
Market holiday in the US & Canada on account of ‘Labor Day’ (Mon); speeches by the Fed’s Musalem on economy & policy at the Peterson Institute (Wed, 2pm) & Goolsbee in a moderated Q&A (Fri, 12am); Fed releases Beige Book (Wed, 7pm). |
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Monday: |
N/A |
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Tuesday: |
Canada S&P manufacturing sector PMI (Aug, 2:45pm); US S&P manufacturing sector PMIs (August final estimate, 2:45pm); US ISM manufacturing PMI (Aug, 3pm); US construction spending (July, 3pm). |
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Wednesday: |
Canadian Labour productivity (Q2, 1:30pm); US JOLTS job openings (July, 3pm); US vehicle sales (Aug, 3pm); US durable goods orders (July final estimate, 3pm). |
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Thursday: |
US Challenger job cuts (Aug, 12:30pm); US ADP employment (Aug, 1:15pm); US nonfarm productivity & unit labour costs (Q2 final estimate, 1:30pm); US weekly jobless claims (1:30pm); US trade balance (July, 1:30pm); Canada S&P service sector PMI (August final estimate, 2:30pm); US S&P service sector PMIs (August final estimate, 2:45pm); US ISM services PMI (Aug, 3pm). |
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Friday: |
Canadian employment data (change in employment, unemployment rate & participation rate, for August, 1:30pm); US nonfarm payrolls, hourly earnings & unemployment data (Aug, 1:30pm). |
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Key earnings: |
Salesforce Inc (Wed); Broadcom, Copart (Thurs); Kroger (Fri). |
Fig B: US ISM manufacturing PMI _
Key European Macro Data & Events
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Events: |
Speeches by the ECB’s Lagarde at ESRB event (Wed, 8:30am) & Cipollone in EU Parliament (Thurs, 10:30am). |
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Monday: |
HCOB manufacturing sector PMIs for Spain (8:15am), Italy (8:45am), France (8:50am), Germany (8:55am) & Eurozone (9am) – all August final estimates apart from Spain & Italy; Italian unemployment rate (July, 9am); Eurozone unemployment rate (July, 10am). |
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Tuesday: |
Spanish unemployment rate (Aug, 8am); EZ headline & core CPI (Aug first estimate, 10am); Italian PPI (July, 10am). |
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Wednesday: |
HCOB services sector PMIs for Spain (8:15am), Italy (8:45am), France (8:50am), Germany (8:55am) & Eurozone (9am) – all August final estimates apart from Spain & Italy; Eurozone PPI (July, 10am). |
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Thursday: |
HCOB construction sector PMI for Germany (Aug, 8:30am); Eurozone retail sales (July, 10am). |
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Friday: |
German factory orders (July, 7am); French trade balance (July, 7:45am); Spanish INE house price index (Q2, 8am); Italian retail sales (July, 10am); Eurozone GDP (Q2 third estimate, 10am). |
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Key earnings: |
N/A |
Fig C: Eurozone headline & core CPI (Y-o-Y %)
Key UK Macro Data & Events
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Events: |
Speech by the Bank of England’s Breeden at Warwick Business School (Wed, 9:15am). |
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Monday: |
Nationwide house prices (Aug, 7am); Net consumer credit, mortgage approvals & M4 money supply (July, 9:30am); S&P manufacturing sector PMI (August final estimate, 9:30am). |
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Tuesday: |
N/A |
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Wednesday: |
S&P service sector PMI (August final estimate, 9:30am). |
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Thursday: |
New car sales (Aug, 9am); S&P construction sector PMI (Aug, 9:30am). |
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Friday: |
Retail sales (July, 7am). |
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Key earnings: |
N/A |
Fig D: UK Nationwide house prices (Y-o-Y %)
Key Asia-Pacific Macro Data & Events
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Events: |
Speech by the BOJ deputy Governor Himino in Hokkaido (Tues, 2:30am); Speeches by the RBA’s Bullock (Wed, 9am) & Hauser (Thurs, 2am).
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Monday: |
Australian S&P manufacturing PMI (August final estimate, 12am); Japanese capital spending & company sales (Q2, 12:50am); S&P Global manufacturing sector PMI (August final estimate, 1:30am); Australian headline CPI (Aug, 2am); Australian inventories & company profits (Q2, 2:30am); Australian ANZ-Indeed job advertisements (Aug, 2:30am).
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Tuesday: |
Japanese monetary base (Aug, 12:50am). |
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Wednesday: |
Australian S&P services sector PMI (August final estimate, 12am); Japanese S&P Global services sector PMI (August final estimate, 1:30am); Australian GDP (Q2, 2:30am). |
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Thursday: |
Australian imports/exports, & trade balance (July, 2:30am); Australian household spending (July, 2:30am). |
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Friday: |
Japanese household spending (July, 12:30am); Japanese ESRI leading index (July first estimate, 6am). |
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Key earnings: |
N/A |
Fig E: Japanese ESRI leading index shown with recession bands
This Week:
Longview on Friday, 29th August 2025:
“Debt, Reserve Status, and Diverging Bond Markets”
EZ Quarterly Asset Allocation No. 63, 28th August 2025
“Europe: Cyclical Upswing Ongoing”
Daily Dose of Macro & Markets:
Daily Dose of Macro & Markets 27th August 2025:
“US Housing: Waiting On The Fed”
Daily Dose of Macro & Markets 26th August 2025:
Weekly Risk Appetite Gauge:
'Weekly Risk Appetite Gauge', 25th August 2025:
“Buyer Exhaustion Creeping In?”
Last Week:
Longview on Friday, 22nd August 2025:
“AI Capex – How Economically Significant?”
Longview Letter No. 150, 21st August 2025:
“Drivers of Global Sector Leadership a.k.a. Sector Rotation - Entering into the ‘Sunlit Uplands’”
Longview ‘Tactical’ Alert No. 93, 19th August 2025:
“US Equity Market: Six Warning Signs”
Daily Dose of Macro & Markets:
Daily Dose of Macro & Markets 21st August 2025:
“UK Inflation: Under the Bonnet –> Better Than Expected”
Daily Dose of Macro & Markets 20th August 2025:
“US Housing Activity: Depressed”
Daily Dose of Macro & Markets 19th August 2025:
“Japan’s Nikkei Breakout: Should It Be Chased?”
Weekly Risk Appetite Gauge:
'Weekly Risk Appetite Gauge', 18th August 2025:
“The Troubling Message of Volumes”