Below is a transcript from Monday's Morning Market Hit video above.
Welcome to Shortview Trading, your morning market update for Monday, 18th November. This week’s key focus for traders of US equity futures with a one-to-two-week horizon includes identifying short-term indicators to steer near-term market direction and deciding whether to go long or short on US equities.
The context for the equity market is one of recent optimism driven by the US election result, which included expectations of loose fiscal policy, reduced regulation, and lower corporate taxes—a business-friendly agenda. However, some of these post-election gains have started to unwind. For example, the S&P 500 broke below its sideways trading range last Friday, dipping beneath its mid-October highs, with a similar pattern seen in the NASDAQ. The Russell 2000 small-cap index is performing better, but other key indices like the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (Philly SOX) fell sharply last week, down 8.6%, breaking below its 200-day moving average. Meanwhile, US Treasury yields have risen, with the 10-year yield closing at 4.43% on Friday, reflecting growing concerns about inflation, partly due to the potential inflationary impact of Trump’s tariffs.
Break-even inflation rates support these concerns, with the 2-year rate closing around 2.2% on Friday, up 90 basis points since the summer. Markets are grappling with these issues—higher inflation, rising bond yields, tighter Fed policy, and reduced liquidity—which have troubled equities in recent days. Our daily trading publication, available to subscribers with a free trial option, provides one-to-two-week trading recommendations for US equity futures.
One of the tools we use is a technical scoring system for the S&P 500, designed to identify key turning points in the index. Following the election, the model generated a sell signal, which has since largely unwound, and it’s now shifting back to buy. Other short-term models are also being monitored to assess whether the market is finding a floor, building a base, and preparing to rally in the coming weeks. For further insights, consult our daily publication.
In terms of macro data and events this week, there’s a housing theme in the US economy: the NAHB Home Builders Index is out today, followed by housing starts and building permits tomorrow, existing home sales on Thursday, and the first November estimates for manufacturing and service sector PMIs on Friday. On Wednesday, Nvidia releases its earnings report, adding to a busy week.
That was your morning market hit. Follow us on YouTube under Shortview Trading or connect with us on Twitter, LinkedIn, or Facebook. Thanks for listening!
FIG 1: S&P500 futures candlestick shown with its 50 day moving average
FIG 2: NASDAQ100 futures candlestick, shown with 50 & 200 day moving averages
FIG 3: Russell 2000 futures candlestick shown with its 50 & 200 day moving averges
FIG 4: Philly SOX candlestick shown with its 50 & 200 day moving averages
FIG 5: Federal Reserve 10 year yields shown with key moving averages
FIG 6: US 2-year Break-Even Inflation Rate
FIG 7: Longview S&P500 short term 'technical' scoring system vs. S&P500 futures
