The State of Markets: “Froth Everywhere (almost)”
Froth has been building in markets this month. Gold has hit new highs; the rally in silver has been dramatic (+16% MTD); the move in emerging market equities has become parabolic (with a ‘near vertical’ price ascent in recent weeks); and, in the US, a number of single stocks have moved significantly higher (for detailed analysis see yesterday’s ‘Daily Dose of Macro & Markets’: “Blink & You Missed It!”).
Often, price moves like these occur during the ‘blow-off top’ phase in equity markets (ahead of major pullbacks). Recent price action in Bitcoin, in that respect, has been interesting. It’s trended down in recent months and yesterday moved sharply lower (-3.8%), see chart below. As a key measure of marginal liquidity, that asset price bears watching closely.
Next week it’s all eyes on the US labour market, with JOLTS job openings (Tuesday); ADP employment (Wednesday); Challenger job cuts (Thursday); and nonfarm payrolls (Friday). Other key US data includes pending home sales (Monday), Conference Board Consumer Confidence (Tuesday), ISM manufacturing (Wednesday) & ISM services (Friday). In Europe it’s ‘inflation week’ with September CPI reports for various countries on Monday and Tuesday, followed by Eurozone-wide data on Wednesday. There are also speeches by Lagarde in Helsinki (Tuesday) and Amsterdam (Friday). Please see below for a full list of next week’s data and events.
Key Chart: Bitcoin price (USD) vs. S&P500
Upcoming Important Data/Events This Week:
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Events: |
RBA policy decision (Tues, 5:30am); speeches by Lagarde in Helsinki & Amsterdam (Tues, 1:50pm & Fri, 10:30am). |
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Monday: |
US Pending home sales (Aug, 3pm).
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Tuesday: |
US Conference Board Consumer Confidence (Sept, 3pm); US JOLTS job openings (August, 3pm); Chinese Caixin manufacturing & service sector PMI (Sept, 2:45am). |
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Wednesday: |
US ADP employment (Sept, 1:15pm); US ISM manufacturing PMI (Sept, 3pm); EZ headline & core CPI (September first estimate, 10am).
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Thursday: |
US Challenger job cuts (Sept, 12:30pm). |
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Friday: |
US nonfarm payrolls, hourly earnings & unemployment data (Sept, 1:30pm); US ISM services PMI (Sept, 3pm). |
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Key earnings: |
Nike (Tues). |
Key Research
Recommended Global Macro Trade, 25th September 2025:
“Gold: Toppy Again? Or ‘To the Moon?’”
Gold has been caught up in the surge of ‘risk on’ price action over the course of September. With that, it has broken out to the upside, and triggered the stop loss on our SHORT position (which was implemented at the end of May). We remain SHORT the Gold-Silver ratio which has fallen considerably since late May (as Silver has rallied much harder than gold). Since late May Gold is up 13.1%; silver is 32.1% higher. With that, the ratio has fallen to 85.1x (from 99.6 in May, fig 6).
Given the upside breakout, and strength in the gold price, it’s now overextended to the upside (using our overextended indicator which looks at the price relative to its 50 day moving average, fig 2 – as well as our medium term technical model, fig 7).
Key North American Macro Data & Events:
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Events: |
Speeches by the Fed’s Waller on payments (Mon, 12:30pm), Bostic moderates a conversation with the Delta CEO (Mon, 11pm), Jefferson (Tues, 11am), Goolsbee in a Q&A (Tues, 6:30pm), Logan in a moderated conversation (Wed, 12:10am), Logan at the University of Texas conference (Thurs, 3:30pm), Williams in Amsterdam (11:05am) & Jefferson on economic outlook (Wed, 6:40pm). |
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Monday: |
Pending home sales (Aug, 3pm); US Dallas Fed manufacturing sector activity (Sept, 3:30pm). |
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Tuesday: |
US FHFA house price index (July, 2pm); US S&P/Case-Shiller 20-city & national house prices (July, 2pm); US Chicago PMI (Sept, 2:45pm); US Conference Board Consumer Confidence (Sept, 3pm); US JOLTS job openings (August, 3pm); US Dallas Fed service sector activity (Sept, 3:30pm). |
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Wednesday: |
US ADP employment (Sept, 1:15pm); Canadian S&P Global manufacturing sector PMI (Sept, 2:30pm); US S&P manufacturing sector PMIs (September final estimate, 2:45pm); US ISM manufacturing PMI (Sept, 3pm); US construction spending (Aug, 3pm); US vehicle sales (Sept, 3pm). |
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Thursday: |
US Challenger job cuts (Sept, 12:30pm); US weekly jobless claims (1:30pm); US durable goods orders (August final estimate, 1:30pm). |
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Friday: |
US nonfarm payrolls, hourly earnings & unemployment data (Sept, 1:30pm); Canadian S&P service sector PMI (September final estimate, 2:30pm); US S&P service sector PMIs (September final estimate, 2:45pm); US ISM services PMI (Sept, 3pm). |
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Key earnings: |
Nike, Paychex (Tues). |
Fig B: US ISM manufacturing & service sector PMIs
Key European Macro Data & Events
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Events: |
Speeches by the ECB’s Muller & Cipollone in Tallinn (Mon, 7:30am & 8:10am), Ceteno in Lisbon (Mon, 9:30am), Schnabel & Nagel in Frankfurt (Mon, 10am), Vujcic in Brussels (Mon, 12:35pm), Rehn at Finland Central Bank conference (Tues, 10:30am), Cipollone in Frankfurt (Tues, 12pm), Lagarde in Helsinki (Tues, 1:50pm), Nagel in London (Tues, 6pm), Kazimir, Kocher & Simkus in Bratislava (Wed, 8:15am), Guindos (Wed, 8:45am), Villeroy in Luxembourg (Thurs, 5:30pm), Guindos in Madrid (Thurs, 6pm), Sleijpen & Lagarde in Amsterdam (Fri, 10:30am), Villeroy in Amsterdam (Fri, 11:30am) & Schnabel in Amsterdam (Fri, 2:50pm); Riksbank minutes from monetary policy meeting (Mon, 8:30am). |
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Monday: |
Spanish CPI (September first estimate, 8am); Spanish retail sales (Aug, 8am); Eurozone consumer confidence (September final estimate, 10am). |
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Tuesday: |
German retail sales (Aug, 7am); German import price index (Aug, 7am); French consumer spending (Aug, 7:45am); French PPI (Aug, 7:45am); French headline CPI (September first estimate, 7:45am); German unemployment (Sept, 8:55am); Italian PPI (Aug, 11am); Italian headline CPI (September first estimate, 10am); Italian industrial sales (Jul, 11am); German headline CPI (September first estimate, 1pm). |
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Wednesday: |
HCOB manufacturing sector PMIs for Spain (8:15am), Italy (8:45am), France (8:50am), Germany (8:55am) & Eurozone (9am) – all September final estimates apart from Spain & Italy; EZ headline & core CPI (September first estimate, 10am). |
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Thursday: |
Spanish unemployment rate (Sept, 8am); Italian unemployment rate (Aug, 9am); Eurozone unemployment rate (Aug, 10am). |
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Friday: |
French industrial & manufacturing production (Aug, 7:45am); HCOB services sector PMIs for Spain (8:15am), Italy (8:45am), France (8:50am), Germany (8:55am) & Eurozone (9am) – all September final estimates apart from Spain & Italy; Italian retail sales (Aug, 10am); Eurozone PPI (Aug, 10am). |
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Key earnings: |
N/A |
Fig C: Eurozone headline & core CPI (Y-o-Y %)
Key UK Macro Data & Events
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Events: |
Speeches by the Bank of England’s Lombardelli at Finland central bank conference (Tues, 12:50pm), Mann at the FT Future of Financial Intelligence conference (Tues, 2:25pm), Breeden in Cardiff (Tues, 4:30pm), Mann at the Bloomberg Woman, Money & Power Conference (Wed, 10:55am) & Bailey in Amsterdam (Fri, 2:20pm). |
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Monday: |
Net consumer credit, mortgage approvals & M4 money supply (Aug, 9:30am). |
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Tuesday: |
Lloyds business barometer (Sept, 12:01am) ; BRC shop price index (Sept, 12:01am); UK GDP (Q2 final estimate, 7am). |
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Wednesday: |
Nationwide house prices (Sept, 7am); S&P manufacturing sector PMI (September final estimate, 9:30am). |
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Thursday: |
N/A |
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Friday: |
S&P service sector PMI (September final estimate, 9:30am). |
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Key earnings: |
N/A |
Fig D: UK consumer credit growth (billion)
Key Asia-Pacific Macro Data & Events
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Events: |
Speeches by the BOJ’s Noguchi in Sapporo (Mon, 6:30am) & Governor Ueda in Osaka (Fri, 2:05am); RBA policy decision (Tues, 5:30am). |
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Monday: |
Japanese ESRI leading index (July final estimate, 6am). |
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Tuesday: |
Japanese retail sales (Aug, 12:50am); Japanese industrial production (August first estimate, 12:50am); Australian private sector credit (Sept, 2:30am); Australian building approvals (Aug, 2:30am); Chinese Caixin manufacturing & service sector PMI (Sept, 2:45am); Japanese housing starts (Aug, 6am). |
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Wednesday: |
Australian S&P manufacturing PMI (September final estimate, 12am); Japanese S&P Global manufacturing sector PMI (September final estimate, 1:30am). |
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Thursday: |
Japanese monetary base (Sept, 12:50am); Australian imports/exports, & trade balance (Aug, 2:30am); Australian household spending (Aug, 2:30am); Japanese ESRI consumer confidence (Sept, 6am). |
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Friday: |
Australian S&P services sector PMIs (September first estimates, 12am); Japanese jobless rate (Aug, 12:30am); Japanese S&P Global services sector PMI (September final estimate, 1:30am). |
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Key earnings: |
N/A |
Fig E: Chinese Caixin manufacturing & service sector PMIs
This Week:
Longview on Friday, 26th September 2025:
“AI Bubble? US Housing; & Three Potential Market Scenarios For The Next Three Years”
Recommended Global Macro Trade, 25th September 2025
“Gold: Toppy Again? Or ‘To the Moon?’”
Quarterly Global Asset Allocation Update No. 63, 23rd September 2025
“The Great ‘Catch-Up’ A.k.a. From AI Mania to Broader Market Leadership”
Daily Dose of Macro & Markets:
Daily Dose of Macro & Markets 25th September 2025:
Daily Dose of Macro & Markets 24th September 2025:
“Chinese Energy Dominance and the ‘Green Energy Scam’”
Daily Dose of Macro & Markets 23rd September 2025:
“US Housing -> A Key Risk Factor"
Weekly Risk Appetite Gauge:
'Weekly Risk Appetite Gauge', 22nd September 2025:
“Global Equities: Frothy, Overbought & Overextended”
Last Week:
Longview on Friday, 19th September 2025:
“Longview Strategic Asset Allocation Macro Updates”
US Quarterly Asset Allocation Update No. 63, 19th September 2025
“Boom or Bust? A.k.a. Are we near the end or the beginning of the ‘Winner’s Curse’ phase of the 18 year land cycle?”
China Quarterly Asset Allocation Update No. 63, 15th September 2025
“China: Sugar Rush Now, Slowdown Later A.k.a. Navigating China’s Growth Path”
Daily Dose of Macro & Markets:
Daily Dose of Macro & Markets 18th September 2025:
“Fed Meeting Outcome & Gold”
Daily Dose of Macro & Markets 17th September 2025:
“How Frothy Are Markets?”
Daily Dose of Macro & Markets 16th September 2025:
“China: More Stimulus -> More Equity Upside”
Weekly Risk Appetite Gauge:
'Weekly Risk Appetite Gauge', 15th September 2025:
“Buy the Rumour, Sell the Fact”