“US hits one-kilo gold bars with tariffs in blow to refining hub Switzerland; Futures contracts for precious metal reach new high after blow to country’s bullion trade”
Source: FT.com, 7th August 2025 https://www.ft.com/content/78be1315-608d-43c6-b8e7-80b9e18c5ce7
US (COMEX) gold prices spiked sharply on Friday as “a Trump administration ruling that gold bars will be subject to tariffs stunned traders who had assumed they would be exempted” (source: Bloomberg).
With that news, the COMEX gold price (US futures price) rallied sharply reaching an intraday high of $3,477. That level was close to, although still below, the intraday high reached earlier this year on 22nd April (i.e. $3,486 - fig 1). Later in the day (on Friday), those gains were then erased as a Trump official said that the White House intends to issue an ‘executive order’ to clarify what the person described as misinformation’ (source: Bloomberg https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-08-08/us-hits-gold-bars-with-tariffs-in-blow-to-switzerland-ft-report).
Despite Friday’s gains, though, the gold price has been trading sideways since late April (fig 1). Indeed, in recent months it’s generated a ‘pennant’ technical price pattern (or a ‘wedge’). These are price patterns which have a narrowing range. Generally, as the price nears the end of the ‘pennant’, a breakout is expected – although technical analysis doesn’t typically provide insights into which direction.
The lack of downside put protection in the gold price (fig 2), though, which highlights the lack of fear (i.e. high levels of complacency) associated with owning gold LONG positions is an indication that the real breakout, when it occurs, is mostly likely to be to the downside (i.e. as it’s a contrarian indicator). Equally, gold speculative positioning remains reasonably net LONG (although is just shy of record levels), while gold sentiment is still notably bullish (despite the sideways price action). Both of those signals are also contrarian indicators (i.e. signalling SELL).
All of which, therefore, is consistent with our view (as laid out in this weekly market positioning publication on 30th June 2025) that gold is ‘Golden No More’.
FIG 1: Gold (COMEX futures) candlestick chart shown with key moving averages
FIG 2: Gold put to call ratio (10 day smoothed) vs. gold price (USD/oz)
