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The Short View, 3rd February 2026:
The Short View is primarily about recent, short term market movements in key asset classes (equities, bonds, rates, currencies, commodities and volatility). Much of the thinking in the product is based on positioning and sentiment shifts. The product draws upon the Commodities Futures Trading Commission’s (CFTC) ‘Commitments Of Traders’ report (COT), which is published each week. We use the data in this report that relates to speculators, and include it as part of our analysis of recent market price action across key asset classes (and then outline our conclusions in the Short View publication).
"Gold & Silver: Anatomy of a Bubble"
"Technically, gold and silver have displayed the classic signs of a bubble in recent months. That is, the rally has been accompanied by large volatility spikes (evidence of FOMO & panic buying); bullish multi-year high sentiment readings; extreme (rare) SELL signals from our models; and explanations for why “this time is different”.
This market was therefore primed for considerable downside, as we noted last week, see quote above – and see last week’s Longview Market Positioning note for detail (Monday 26th January: “Silver: In a Bubble?”).
With that, gold (-11.4%) and silver (-31%) futures closed sharply lower last Friday. That was the largest one day sell-off for both metals since the bursting of their respective price bubbles in early 1980.
In that respect, their recent price action has followed a somewhat similar shape to the gold & silver bubble ‘playbooks’ from both 1978-1980 and 2010-11..."
Tactical Equity Asset Allocation, 5th October 2026:
The Tactical Equity Asset Allocation is an explicit recommendation on the outlook for the S&P500 Index on a one to four month horizon. Those recommendations are based on our suite of medium-term quantitative models, as well as our analysis of the US and global economic cycle.
"Equity SELL-off Risk High A.k.a. Stay OW Bonds; Move UW Equities"
“We remain cautious about the near term 1 – 4 month outlook for US large cap equities (i.e. the S&P500).
The deterioration of various breadth indicators (e.g. see figs 1, 2 & 2a), whilst the main US S&P500 index remains at high levels, is a troubling sign. Prior instances of this type of divergence between breadth and the S&P500 happen every few years (e.g. see analysis in 22nd September 2026 Daily Dose: “The Market’s ‘Wile E. Coyote’ Moment”)."
Quarterly Global Asset Allocation No. 66, 25th June 2026:
The Quarterly Global Asset Allocation is a recommendation for a global portfolio comprised of equities, bonds, commodities, credit and cash with a six to twenty four month investment horizon. The recommendation is based on our assessment of the global economic cycle, the current key investment/macro themes, our assessment of market valuation and analysis of other key factors which drive medium to long term investment cycles. Each quarter there is a section with a detailed analysis of the economic cycle in the USA, Eurozone and China. There is also a section dedicated to valuation across all key asset classes, as well as a front section with detailed recommendations and rationale.
"From AI Boom To Economic Broadening"
"With markets frothy and speculative, and with large cap stocks listing at record price to sales valuations (i.e. SpaceX), investors are worried. Indeed, the list of factors to worry about is long, and includes:
i) A new chairman at the Fed with big ideas about how to change the Fed’s modus operandi (including shrinking its balance sheet). In his firstmeeting, he also put the market on alert re: potential rate hikes.
ii) US equities which are richly valued (near record CAPE PER) and frothy with high levels of speculation (record margin debt as a % of market cap). Added to which, there are multiple signs that the US equity market is (at least) in the late stages of its current cyclical bull market, while:
iii) The bottom half of the US economy has struggled in the past 12 – 36 months (auto and credit card delinquencies, for example, are at/close to record highs). Real personal disposable income contracted last month by 0.3% (Y-o-Y, May data)..."
Global Macro Report, 5th March 2026:
In our Global Macro Reports we identify and explore key macro themes & the outlook for major economies. The reports frequently examine the US, Eurozone & China and, occasionally, other major economies.
"US Labour Market: How Much Slack Is There?"
"Several factors are key for thinking about the outlook for Fed policy (including oil, tariffs, credit growth, amongst others). Arguably the most important is the labour market (and, with that, wage and service sector PCE inflation).
In our view, labour market slack is growing and will increasingly enhance the case for ongoing Fed loosening this year (and beyond). In particular, (i) headline employment has been inflated by government related jobs (point 1 & fig 1); (ii) ‘hard data’ indicators point to rising levels of slack (point 2); (iii) that’s confirmed by ‘soft data’ surveys (point 3); (iv) wage inflation is therefore trending down (point 4); and with that (v) unemployment is rising despite a healthy corporate sector (which is rare, and arguably reflects the start of labour displacement from AI adoption), point 5. Please see Key Points below for detail..."
Longview Letter, 13th August 2026:
Longview Letters look in depth at key long term themes which relate to the outlook for global financial markets & the global economy. These thematic pieces aim to provoke thinking and often form the basis for podcasts and newspaper editorials.
“Hidden Risks: US Housing & The ‘18 Year Land Cycle’
a.k.a. US Housing is Rolling Over”
“The 18 year land cycle is not well known in financial market circles, but has been a useful tool for predicting US recessions. Fred Harrison, one of its chief proponents in recent decades, predicted the 2008 housing crash in his 2005 book (‘Boom Bust’); Fred Foldvary also predicted it using the same methodology (source: https://www.progress.org/articles/18-6-year-real-estate-cycle/). Others have used it successfully in both the US & UK. In their books, Harrison and Anderson both show the evidence for the 18 year land cycle all the way back to the 1800s. The key dates in recent cycles (back to WWII) are shown in the chart below. The cycle consists of 14 ‘up’ years (in house prices), punctuated by a mid cycle recession (non-housing related, e.g. 2001), culminating with a ‘winners’ curse’ phase (when house prices accelerate). Then four down years
accompanied by a deep recession (with next one due 2027 – 2030).
As recently as 2023, Harrison doubled down on his expectation that US housing would ‘crash’ (peak) in 2026 (see quote above). Whilst that (2026 crash) now seems (highly) unlikely, it’s clear that US housing is under a considerable amount of pressure. That is evident in 6 key ways..."
Monthly Global Asset Allocation, 27th February 2026:
To supplement our Quarterly Global Asset Allocation which focuses on the US, Europe and China, we publish a Monthly Asset Allocation which digs deeper into specific other themes/sectors/asset classes such as commodities, bonds and emerging markets. We then update our Global Asset Allocation recommendations for these asset allocations.
"SELL Bonds –> BUY Equities A.k.a. From ‘Box 1’ to ‘Box 2’"
"Despite all the chatter about US fiscal deficits, the debasement of the dollar and Trump changing the world’s ‘rules based order’, US bond market volatility has died a death. The ICE MOVE index (a measure of implied bond market volatility) has fallen sharply from its highs in March 2023, especially in the past 12 months. It’s at 62% on latest data and towards the lower end of its 35+ year history. Only a month ago, it was at 55% (and equivalent to major low points over the course of its history, fig 1).
The fall in that volatility reflects the sideways movement in US bond yields, whether looking at nominal, real yields or the break-even measures of inflation..."
LV on Friday, 3rd July 2026:
The Longview on Friday brings together every aspect of Longview's weekly analysis and strategic investment advice. The report updates key themes, outlines crucial trading advice and drills deep into the most relevant market movements and macro trends. The Longview on Friday has successfully predicted and remained ahead of key global trends. The report identifies the key themes that will drive global markets in the short and long term.
“Five Reasons Why US 10 Year Bond Yields Are Heading to 6% ”
"In late February, we recommended moving our strategic allocation to sovereign bonds from overweight to underweight. At the time US 10 year yields were below 4% and the Iran war hadn’t kicked off. Our macro analysis suggested that we were moving from BOX 1 to BOX 2 on our asset allocation grid (see table 2 in appendix and Monthly Asset Allocation no 74, 27th February 2026: “SELL Bonds, BUY Equities”). The Iran war then accelerated the upside in yields given the rising inflation risk from the oil price shock. Since the war has ended, and the oil price receded, US 10 year bond yields have eased off (and are currently trading at 4.46%). As highlighted in our 18th May 2026 ‘Market Positioning’ publication, bonds at the time were deeply oversold on price. As such, a bounce (relief rally) was likely.
When we wrote “SELL Bonds, BUY Equities”, though, our timeframe/outlook was 6 – 24 months. Recent events haven’t changed that view. Indeed our ‘throwaway’ line in meetings is that US 10 year yields of 6%, in 1 – 3 years’ time, is likely. That expectation is predicated on the rising ‘demand for money’, which will drive faster growth and a higher bond yield (i.e. as demand for money picks up). Five key points underpin that expectation/line of thinking. They are as follows... "
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