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RAG

Daily RAG Recommendation Sample, 5th November 2021:

The Daily RAG publication comes out every business day before 9:30am London time, and includes a 1 – 2 week LONG or SHORT recommendation on equity index futures, typically S&P500 futures. The publication also features an overview of global market movements, economic and political events, key macro data releases and a summary of the message generated by our suite of proprietary models.

"Start BUILDing SHORT positions"

"Parabolic price action often accompanies near term tops in global equity markets. While the medium term trend in equity markets is upwards (i.e. on a multi month timeframe), increasingly this rally needs a pause/giveback phase. In particular parabolic price action is typical of a ‘blow off’ top.

Added to that: i) Our SELL-off indicator continues to build higher above its key +20 level, at which it signals that there has been excessive greediness in markets (which, at some stage, usually reverses); while ii) our short term market timing models are largely generating an across the board SELL signal. Volatility is also at multi month low and complacency is therefore high...

...Given that backdrop we recommend starting to BUILD SHORT positions."

sv

The Short View Sample, 9th August 2021:

The Short View is primarily about recent, short term market movements in key asset classes (equities, bonds, rates, currencies, commodities and volatility). Much of the thinking in the product is based on positioning and sentiment shifts. The product draws upon the Commodities Futures Trading Commission’s (CFTC) ‘Commitments Of Traders’ report (COT), which is published each week. We use the data in this report that relates to speculators, and include it as part of our analysis of recent market price action across key asset classes (and then outline our conclusions in the Short View publication).

"Bonds: What’s Next? Are Yields Troughing?"

"Whilst the case for moving SHORT US government bonds is not yet compelling, the evidence is growing that the majority of this rally in bond prices is likely now complete. That is, the move lower from a closing yield peak of 1.74% in March this year to a closing low of 1.19% over recent weeks, is probably the majority, if not the whole, of the move lower in US 10 year government bond yields.

In particular, there are 5 key factors which support that contention. They are as follows..."

Trades

Recommended Global Macro Fund Update Sample, 24th November 2021:

‘Macro Trade Recommendations’ highlight trading opportunities with a one to six month time horizon across a variety of key asset classes, including: Government bonds; currencies; rates; equities; and commodities. The product details the macro, markets and model rationale behind the recommended trade and also shows how to structure it (in terms of which instrument to use).

"Move SHORT Tech relative to Financials"

"For five key reasons we expect some marked rotation amongst key equity market sectors over coming months. That is, we expect the recent performance of IT against financials to reverse. 

In recent months, tech has outperformed cyclicals and financials (which have broadly trended sideways for the past 6 months). Banks including JPMorgan and Citigroup, for example, are flat/down since their highs in May. In contrast, Microsoft, Nvidia, Tesla and others, have pushed out to new highs. Over coming months, though, equity market leadership should switch back to financials (and other cyclical sectors), for a number of technical, positioning, sentiment, bond yield and macro related reasons..."

taa

Tactical Equity Asset Allocation No. 215, 2nd December 2021:

The Tactical Equity Asset Allocation is an explicit recommendation on the outlook for the S&P500 Index on a one to four month horizon. Those recommendations are based on our suite of medium-term quantitative models, as well as our analysis of the US and global economic cycle.

"Start re-BUILDing Tactical Equity OW Positions (despite some macro risks)"

“On balance, therefore, and while model signals can be early during bouts of significant market stress, the message of the models is increasingly clear. That is, the models favour re-instating tactical LONG positions given that fear levels are high, equities are oversold, and excessive exuberance has unwound...

To balance those risk factors with the message of the models, though, we recommend (slowly) starting to BUILD tactical OW equity positions, i.e. with modest OW positions at this juncture.”

QAA

Extract from Quarterly Asset Allocation No. 46, 16th June 2021:

The Quarterly Global Asset Allocation is a recommendation for a global portfolio comprised of equities, bonds, commodities, credit and cash with a six to twenty four month investment horizon. The recommendation is based on our assessment of the global economic cycle, the current key investment/macro themes, our assessment of market valuation and analysis of other key factors which drive medium to long term investment cycles. Each quarter there is a section with a detailed analysis of the economic cycle in the USA, Eurozone and China. There is also a section dedicated to valuation across all key asset classes, as well as a front section with detailed recommendations and rationale.

"Eurozone: Structurally Challenged; Cyclically Reaccelerating"

In the Eurozone section of our Q2 2021 Quarterly Asset Allocation Update, we made the case for a cyclical bounce in the Eurozone economy, albeit in the context of a weak long term growth outlook. In particular, as the vaccine rollout was picking up speed, various factors pointed to an ongoing cyclical recovery in the Eurozone economy: The health of the corporate sector was improving, households were cashed up, and our proprietary 'traffic light' indicators were giving a green light...

gmr

Global Macro Report Sample, 25th March 2022:

In our Global Macro Reports we identify and explore key macro themes & the outlook for major economies. The reports frequently examine the US, Eurozone & China and, occasionally, other major economies.

"Multiple Cashflow Shocks: Can UK Households Cope?"

"...UK consumers are facing multiple price shocks including: i) a rise in national insurance tax (from April this year, albeit in part mitigated by the Chancellor’s announcements yesterday); ii) rising mortgage costs; iii) higher petrol and
other transportation prices; iv) higher electricity prices; & v) higher food prices...

In aggregate we estimate that those shocks will drain between £45bn and £50bn from UK household cashflows in 2022. The key question is, therefore, whether households have enough spare cash and cashflow to absorb those extra costs..."

ll

Longview Letter Sample, 3rd December 2021:

Longview Letters look in depth at key long term themes which relate to the outlook for global financial markets & the global economy. These thematic pieces aim to provoke thinking and often form the basis for podcasts and newspaper editorials.

"The Real Bond Yield Conundrum
a.k.a. 2022: Yields Expected to Back Up"

“...If our US macro and inflation view is correct, there’s significant upside risk to interest rate expectations over coming quarters and years. With that, real (TIPS) yields should trend higher, i.e. given that they are a key barometer of Fed policy/rate expectations…”

cfr

Commodity Fundamentals Report No. 127, 5th April 2022:

Commodities Fundamentals Reports provide deep analysis of the supply and demand dynamics for key commodities. We provide regular updates to our outlook on oil, gold, and copper; and infrequent analysis on silver, iron ore, agricultural commodities and energy.

"The Coming Oil Glut a.k.a. For How Long Will Prices Remain High"

“… In our view, if oil prices remain at current levels, there will be a significant supply response over the coming 12-18 months which will generate a global supply surplus/rising oil inventories in 2023...

… Indeed, while we expect small/medium-sized deficits to continue throughout this year, there are four key factors that we expect will drive a sizeable surplus in the global oil supply-demand balance by mid-2023..."

lvof

LV on Friday Sample, 29th October 2021:

The Longview on Friday brings together every aspect of Longview's weekly analysis and strategic investment advice. The report updates key themes, outlines crucial trading advice and drills deep into the most relevant market movements and macro trends. The Longview on Friday has successfully predicted and remained ahead of key global trends. The report identifies the key themes that will drive global markets in the short and long term.

"Are We Going Back to the (pre GFC) Long ‘Rate Hiking’ Cycles?"

"There have been dramatic moves in short-dated bond yields and interest rate expectations across the globe in recent weeks and, in some cases, the past few days. In the US, Fed fund futures have moved to price in an extra 30 - 50 bps in 2022 and 2023 rate expectations over the course of October. In Europe rate expectations have picked up sharply in the past few weeks. 

With bond yields rising, and therefore shrinking the relative risk premia for equities (at least against the short end), investors' nerves are being tested..."

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