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The Daily RAG publication comes out every business day before 9:30am London time, and includes a 1 – 2 week LONG or SHORT recommendation on equity index futures, typically S&P500 futures. The publication also features an overview of global market movements, economic and political events, key macro data releases and a summary of the message generated by our suite of proprietary models.

"Stay LONG SPX - tighten stop"

...Overall, and as we have been outlining in recent Daily RAGs, the evidence for a major local low and sustained multi session (even multi week) rally is BUILDing. Whilst that evidence is not totally complete, many of the elements are falling into place. In particular, short and medium-term models are generating BUY messages (with only a few key exceptions, as mentioned above). V shaped price action was evident in markets on Friday (although volumes weren’t especially high); whilst markets have become overly bearish (with widespread pessimism). The next key resistance levels are at around 4,000 and then 4,100. Our entry on Friday was at 3,810.

Risk reward, therefore, favours tightening the stop loss and running the LONG position."

The Short View is primarily about recent, short term market movements in key asset classes (equities, bonds, rates, currencies, commodities and volatility). Much of the thinking in the product is based on positioning and sentiment shifts. The product draws upon the Commodities Futures Trading Commission’s (CFTC) ‘Commitments Of Traders’ report (COT), which is published each week. We use the data in this report that relates to speculators, and include it as part of our analysis of recent market price action across key asset classes (and then outline our conclusions in the Short View publication).

"Are US Small-Caps Signalling Recession?"

"Despite some strength over the past week, US equity markets are down sharply this year. Depending on which index and definition are used, some US equity markets are teetering on the edge of bear market territory (e.g. the S&P 500, which has reached a 20% pullback on intraday prices, but not yet on closing prices). Other markets, though, are firmly in bear territory. These include the tech-heavy indices (such as the Nasdaq Composite & the Philly SOX), and, in particular, the small-cap Russell 2000..

The Russell 2000 (which makes up the smallest 8% of the investable US market capitalisation), is down 29.7% from its highs in early November. Given the index represents the ‘average’ US company (rather than the globalised megacaps), many in markets are of the view that a bear market in the Russell 2000 is a clear recession signal..."

‘Macro Trade Recommendations’ highlight trading opportunities with a one to six month time horizon across a variety of key asset classes, including: Government bonds; currencies; rates; equities; and commodities. The product details the macro, markets and model rationale behind the recommended trade and also shows how to structure it (in terms of which instrument to use).

"Move LONG USD-CNH"

"The Chinese currency has been remarkably strong over the past two years (rallying 14% from its low in early 2020 to its recent high in March this year).

In the past week, though, the CNH has begun to sell off sharply. In our view, that sell-off is the start of a more prolonged phase of weakness, underpinned by a number of key macro factors. We therefore recommend moving LONG USD-CNH with both (i) a call and (ii) a long futures position"

The Tactical Equity Asset Allocation is an explicit recommendation on the outlook for the S&P500 Index on a one to four month horizon. Those recommendations are based on our suite of medium-term quantitative models, as well as our analysis of the US and global economic cycle.

"Start re-BUILDing Tactical Equity OW Positions (despite some macro risks)"

“On balance, therefore, and while model signals can be early during bouts of significant market stress, the message of the models is increasingly clear. That is, the models favour re-instating tactical LONG positions given that fear levels are high, equities are oversold, and excessive exuberance has unwound...

To balance those risk factors with the message of the models, though, we recommend (slowly) starting to BUILD tactical OW equity positions, i.e. with modest OW positions at this juncture.”

The Quarterly Global Asset Allocation is a recommendation for a global portfolio comprised of equities, bonds, commodities, credit and cash with a six to twenty four month investment horizon. The recommendation is based on our assessment of the global economic cycle, the current key investment/macro themes, our assessment of market valuation and analysis of other key factors which drive medium to long term investment cycles. Each quarter there is a section with a detailed analysis of the economic cycle in the USA, Eurozone and China. There is also a section dedicated to valuation across all key asset classes, as well as a front section with detailed recommendations and rationale.

"Eurozone: Recession or Soft Patch?"

"...There’s currently a long worry list when it comes to the European macro outlook. In particular, given the sharp widening of peripheral spreads (e.g. BTPs over Bunds), stress in Europe’s financial system has been building. Linked to that, credit conditions in the banking system have started to tighten (in certain countries) while the recession case is starting to grow. Real wages, for example, are shrinking, money supply growth is slowing sharply, leading indicators have rolled over (with some at recession warning levels), and consumer confidence has fallen to low levels..."

In our Global Macro Reports we identify and explore key macro themes & the outlook for major economies. The reports frequently examine the US, Eurozone & China and, occasionally, other major economies.

"Multiple Cashflow Shocks: Can UK Households Cope?"

"...UK consumers are facing multiple price shocks including: i) a rise in national insurance tax (from April this year, albeit in part mitigated by the Chancellor’s announcements yesterday); ii) rising mortgage costs; iii) higher petrol and
other transportation prices; iv) higher electricity prices; & v) higher food prices...

In aggregate we estimate that those shocks will drain between £45bn and £50bn from UK household cashflows in 2022. The key question is, therefore, whether households have enough spare cash and cashflow to absorb those extra costs..."

Longview Letters look in depth at key long term themes which relate to the outlook for global financial markets & the global economy. These thematic pieces aim to provoke thinking and often form the basis for podcasts and newspaper editorials.

"Is This The 1970's? Really? a.k.a. We're All Monetarists now"

“...Most of those key factors, though, are markedly different to today. In particular, there are no price controls, no significant increase in the cost of oil (especially as a % of GDP), no dollar devaluation, low unemployment, and no sharp increase in money velocity (which is currently weak)…

…All of which suggests that inflation will be less sticky this time, especially as money supply growth slows (as it currently is doing)…”

Commodities Fundamentals Reports provide deep analysis of the supply and demand dynamics for key commodities. We provide regular updates to our outlook on oil, gold, and copper; and infrequent analysis on silver, iron ore, agricultural commodities and energy.

"The Coming Oil Glut a.k.a. For How Long Will Prices Remain High"

“… In our view, if oil prices remain at current levels, there will be a significant supply response over the coming 12-18 months which will generate a global supply surplus/rising oil inventories in 2023...

… Indeed, while we expect small/medium-sized deficits to continue throughout this year, there are four key factors that we expect will drive a sizeable surplus in the global oil supply-demand balance by mid-2023..."

The Longview on Friday brings together every aspect of Longview's weekly analysis and strategic investment advice. The report updates key themes, outlines crucial trading advice and drills deep into the most relevant market movements and macro trends. The Longview on Friday has successfully predicted and remained ahead of key global trends. The report identifies the key themes that will drive global markets in the short and long term.

"So, is it a Bear Market?"

"With markets down 20% or so and a relentlessness to the selling, that question is front and centre of most investors’ minds. That is: Is this a bear market? Or is it simply a readjustment of market levels to reflect a repricing of interest rates?

To be clear, we’re not talking about the 20% ‘rule of thumb’ for bear markets (which seems somewhat arbitrary). What we’re referring to is: Have US and/or global equity markets entered a sustained and enduring downtrend (which would typically last multiple quarters or years)?..."

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