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RAG

Daily RAG Recommendation Sample, 5th November 2021:

The Daily RAG publication comes out every business day before 9:30am London time, and includes a 1 – 2 week LONG or SHORT recommendation on equity index futures, typically S&P500 futures. The publication also features an overview of global market movements, economic and political events, key macro data releases and a summary of the message generated by our suite of proprietary models.

"Start BUILDing SHORT positions"

"Parabolic price action often accompanies near term tops in global equity markets. While the medium term trend in equity markets is upwards (i.e. on a multi month timeframe), increasingly this rally needs a pause/giveback phase. In particular parabolic price action is typical of a ‘blow off’ top.

Added to that: i) Our SELL-off indicator continues to build higher above its key +20 level, at which it signals that there has been excessive greediness in markets (which, at some stage, usually reverses); while ii) our short term market timing models are largely generating an across the board SELL signal. Volatility is also at multi month low and complacency is therefore high...

...Given that backdrop we recommend starting to BUILD SHORT positions."

sv

The Short View Sample, 9th August 2021:

The Short View is primarily about recent, short term market movements in key asset classes (equities, bonds, rates, currencies, commodities and volatility). Much of the thinking in the product is based on positioning and sentiment shifts. The product draws upon the Commodities Futures Trading Commission’s (CFTC) ‘Commitments Of Traders’ report (COT), which is published each week. We use the data in this report that relates to speculators, and include it as part of our analysis of recent market price action across key asset classes (and then outline our conclusions in the Short View publication).

"Bonds: What’s Next? Are Yields Troughing?"

"Whilst the case for moving SHORT US government bonds is not yet compelling, the evidence is growing that the majority of this rally in bond prices is likely now complete. That is, the move lower from a closing yield peak of 1.74% in March this year to a closing low of 1.19% over recent weeks, is probably the majority, if not the whole, of the move lower in US 10 year government bond yields.

In particular, there are 5 key factors which support that contention. They are as follows..."

Trades

Recommended Global Macro Fund Update Sample, 4th October 2021:

‘Macro Trade Recommendations’ highlight trading opportunities with a one to six month time horizon across a variety of key asset classes, including: Government bonds; currencies; rates; equities; and commodities. The product details the macro, markets and model rationale behind the recommended trade and also shows how to structure it (in terms of which instrument to use).

"Start BUILDing LONG Russell 2000 positions"

"With bond yields peaking in March and moving lower this summer, sector leadership switched back to tech-oriented indices (as well as defensive sectors). Having made a high on 15th March (at 2,368), the Russell 2000 has since trended sideways, within a tight trading range, for the past 6 ½ months.

Equity market leadership now looks poised to switch back towards cyclically sensitive indices, including the Russell 2000. With that, the Russell 2000 is likely to break out to the upside of its recent technical pennant formation. We favour moving LONG Russell 2000 futures in our macro fund, for three key reasons..."

taa

Tactical Equity Asset Allocation No. 213, 6th October 2021:

The Tactical Equity Asset Allocation is an explicit recommendation on the outlook for the S&P500 Index on a one to four month horizon. Those recommendations are based on our suite of medium-term quantitative models, as well as our analysis of the US and global economic cycle.

"BUYing Opportunity Brewing
a.k.a. Start to Increase Tactical Equity OW"

“…Concerns have risen amongst market participants, triggering an unwinding in equity prices of excessive optimism and overexuberance. With that, various models, which had been on SELL over the course of the summer, are increasingly moving onto/generating BUY signals. Added to that, the macro and liquidity backdrop for equity markets remains onside and supportive of an ongoing cyclical bull market…

…Given that models are moving onto/towards a convincing set of BUY signals, we recommend increasing our tactical equity OW positions in two stages…”

QAA

Extract from Quarterly Asset Allocation No. 46, 16th June 2021:

The Quarterly Global Asset Allocation is a recommendation for a global portfolio comprised of equities, bonds, commodities, credit and cash with a six to twenty four month investment horizon. The recommendation is based on our assessment of the global economic cycle, the current key investment/macro themes, our assessment of market valuation and analysis of other key factors which drive medium to long term investment cycles. Each quarter there is a section with a detailed analysis of the economic cycle in the USA, Eurozone and China. There is also a section dedicated to valuation across all key asset classes, as well as a front section with detailed recommendations and rationale.

"Eurozone: Structurally Challenged; Cyclically Reaccelerating"

In the Eurozone section of our Q2 2021 Quarterly Asset Allocation Update, we made the case for a cyclical bounce in the Eurozone economy, albeit in the context of a weak long term growth outlook. In particular, as the vaccine rollout was picking up speed, various factors pointed to an ongoing cyclical recovery in the Eurozone economy: The health of the corporate sector was improving, households were cashed up, and our proprietary 'traffic light' indicators were giving a green light...

gmr

Global Macro Report Sample, 14th October 2021:

In our Global Macro Reports we identify and explore key macro themes & the outlook for major economies. The reports frequently examine the US, Eurozone & China and, occasionally, other major economies.

"Inflation: Still Transitory (for now) a.k.a. Unravelling the message of current high inflation rates"

“...Inflation is being impacted by reopening effects and associated surges in demand (temporary); high levels of stimulus (somewhat more permanent); substitution effects (likely temporary); and COVID related supply chain and labour market effects (should be temporary).

How these various factors evolve over the next 3 - 12 months will be critical for how central bankers do, or do not, shift their rhetoric (and by how much)...”

ll

Longview Letter Sample, 14th May 2021:

Longview Letters look in depth at key long term themes which relate to the outlook for global financial markets & the global economy. These thematic pieces aim to provoke thinking and often form the basis for podcasts and newspaper editorials.

"Short Term Inflation Risks: How Significant?"

“...The key question, in the short term, therefore, is: For how long will inflation stay high? Is this inflation spike transitory, as the Fed suspects (i.e. just the next few months)? OR, given unprecedented levels of stimulus, has a sustained phase of strong inflation now begun, which would then be likely to change the Fed’s policy calculus and, potentially, bring forward the timing of tapering?…”

cfr

Commodity Fundamentals Report No. 122, 28th October 2021:

Commodities Fundamentals Reports provide deep analysis of the supply and demand dynamics for key commodities. We provide regular updates to our outlook on oil, gold, and copper; and infrequent analysis on silver, iron ore, agricultural commodities and energy.

"Oil: Accelerating Shale Supply Response Expected in 2022?"

“…Given the direct relationship between well completions and production, shale production in a number of basins has already recovered their pandemic losses (e.g. the Permian)…

…On top of that though, and highlighting how US shale activity has been underestimated during the pandemic, post-pandemic shale activity is regularly being revised higher…”

lvof

LV on Friday Sample, 29th October 2021:

The Longview on Friday brings together every aspect of Longview's weekly analysis and strategic investment advice. The report updates key themes, outlines crucial trading advice and drills deep into the most relevant market movements and macro trends. The Longview on Friday has successfully predicted and remained ahead of key global trends. The report identifies the key themes that will drive global markets in the short and long term.

"Are We Going Back to the (pre GFC) Long ‘Rate Hiking’ Cycles?"

"There have been dramatic moves in short-dated bond yields and interest rate expectations across the globe in recent weeks and, in some cases, the past few days. In the US, Fed fund futures have moved to price in an extra 30 - 50 bps in 2022 and 2023 rate expectations over the course of October. In Europe rate expectations have picked up sharply in the past few weeks. 

With bond yields rising, and therefore shrinking the relative risk premia for equities (at least against the short end), investors' nerves are being tested..."

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