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RAG

Daily RAG Recommendation Sample, 7th July 2021:

The Daily RAG publication comes out every business day before 9:30am London time, and includes a 1 – 2 week LONG or SHORT recommendation on equity index futures, typically S&P500 futures. The publication also features an overview of global market movements, economic and political events, key macro data releases and a summary of the message generated by our suite of proprietary models.

"Stay SHORT - bullish psychology starting to break?"

The sample below is from the Daily RAG published on 7th July 2021. In the weeks preceding its publication, equity markets had been strong, rising 4% in three weeks. Reflecting excessive signs of greed, our proprietary risk appetite models were starting to signal that the market was overbought. Likewise, our SELL-off indicator was giving a strong SELL signal. As such, we were recommending SHORT positions in S&P500 futures as well as holding S&P500 put options in preparation for a SELL-off. The next day, the S&P500 fell by over 1%, reversing it's recent uptrend...

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The Short View Sample, 27th May 2021:

The Short View is primarily about recent, short term market movements in key asset classes (equities, bonds, rates, currencies, commodities and volatility). Much of the thinking in the product is based on positioning and sentiment shifts. The product draws upon the Commodities Futures Trading Commission’s (CFTC) ‘Commitments Of Traders’ report (COT), which is published each week. We use the data in this report that relates to speculators, and include it as part of our analysis of recent market price action across key asset classes (and then outline our conclusions in the Short View publication).

"Whither the Dollar?"

After significant weakness in the US dollar (USD) in 2020, the Short View sample below made the case for a short term rally in the dollar (given the large speculative SHORT positioning in dollar futures at the time). In the long run, though, the piece highlights continued weakness in the longer term reflecting Longview's outlook for several key USD drivers: fiscal & monetary policy; the current account deficit; and the outlook for the US consumer.

Trades

Recommended Global Macro Fund Update Sample, 26th May 2021:

‘Macro Trade Recommendations’ highlight trading opportunities with a one to six month time horizon across a variety of key asset classes, including: Government bonds; currencies; rates; equities; and commodities. The product details the macro, markets and model rationale behind the recommended trade and also shows how to structure it (in terms of which instrument to use).

"Move LONG Tech relative to Cyclicals"

Financials had heavily outperformed tech over the course of the pandemic. This piece from May 2021 laid out four key reasons why that trend was likely to reverse, including: technical factors, speculative positioning, sentiment, and global growth expectations. 

taa

Tactical Equity Asset Allocation No. 210, 6th July 2021:

The Tactical Equity Asset Allocation is an explicit recommendation on the outlook for the S&P500 Index on a one to four month horizon. Those recommendations are based on our suite of medium-term quantitative models, as well as our analysis of the US and global economic cycle.

"Five Reasons for Caution a.k.a. Stay NEUTRAL (for now)"

With strong equity performance in June (largely driven by large tech stocks), many of our models were continuing to suggest a SELL-off was imminent (which was soon confirmed in late July). The five reasons for our cautious outlook included: SELL signals from our models; rising SELL-off risks; troubling technical signals; complacent pricing; as well as a number of fundamental factors.

QAA

Extract from Quarterly Asset Allocation No. 46, 16th June 2021:

The Quarterly Global Asset Allocation is a recommendation for a global portfolio comprised of equities, bonds, commodities, credit and cash with a six to twenty four month investment horizon. The recommendation is based on our assessment of the global economic cycle, the current key investment/macro themes, our assessment of market valuation and analysis of other key factors which drive medium to long term investment cycles. Each quarter there is a section with a detailed analysis of the economic cycle in the USA, Eurozone and China. There is also a section dedicated to valuation across all key asset classes, as well as a front section with detailed recommendations and rationale.

"Eurozone: Structurally Challenged; Cyclically Reaccelerating"

In the Eurozone section of our Q2 2021 Quarterly Asset Allocation Update, we made the case for a cyclical bounce in the Eurozone economy, albeit in the context of a weak long term growth outlook. In particular, as the vaccine rollout was picking up speed, various factors pointed to an ongoing cyclical recovery in the Eurozone economy: The health of the corporate sector was improving, households were cashed up, and our proprietary 'traffic light' indicators were giving a green light...

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Global Macro Report Sample, 20th May 2021:

In our Global Macro Reports we identify and explore key macro themes & the outlook for major economies. The reports frequently examine the US, Eurozone & China and, occasionally, other major economies.

"US Macro: How Quickly will the Labour Market Tighten up?"

“...this time, it’s highlighting labour market tightness. All of which, coupled with the evidence laid out above, suggests that one of the surprises of this recovery (versus prior ones) will be the speed at which the Fed feels obliged to tighten monetary policy. Of note in that respect, the Fed started QE in 2008 during the financial crisis.

It then continued with a stop/start QE program through to 2014. Indeed, it was not until the end of 2014 that it had finished its tapering and completed its QE program/expanding its balance sheet. That is also how long it took the US labour market to, once again, reach its pre GFC employment peak...”

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Longview Letter Sample, 14th May 2021:

Longview Letters look in depth at key long term themes which relate to the outlook for global financial markets & the global economy. These thematic pieces aim to provoke thinking and often form the basis for podcasts and newspaper editorials.

"Short Term Inflation Risks: How Significant?"

“...The key question, in the short term, therefore, is: For how long will inflation stay high? Is this inflation spike transitory, as the Fed suspects (i.e. just the next few months)? OR, given unprecedented levels of stimulus, has a sustained phase of strong inflation now begun, which would then be likely to change the Fed’s policy calculus and, potentially, bring forward the timing of tapering?…”

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Commodity Fundamentals Report No. 118, 24th June 2021:

Commodities Fundamentals Reports provide deep analysis of the supply and demand dynamics for key commodities. We provide regular updates to our outlook on oil, gold, and copper; and infrequent analysis on silver, iron ore, agricultural commodities and energy.

"OPEC+ & the Balance of Power"

“…The key question, therefore, is: How sustainable is this oil price rally? Will it persist over coming weeks and months? Or, like other commodities, is it about to ‘top out’ & reverse...

…For both technical and fundamental reasons, oil price upside is limited in our view, with a growing risk of a pullback in coming weeks/months or, at best, a consolidation phase....”

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LV on Friday Sample, 14th May 2021:

The Longview on Friday brings together every aspect of Longview's weekly analysis and strategic investment advice. The report updates key themes, outlines crucial trading advice and drills deep into the most relevant market movements and macro trends. The Longview on Friday has successfully predicted and remained ahead of key global trends. The report identifies the key themes that will drive global markets in the short and long term.

"Inflation: 'The Long and the Short of It'"

With inflation increasingly on investors minds in mid-2021, the LV on Friday provided below analysed the market expectations for inflation, as well as Longview's analysis of the key drivers of inflation throughout history. 

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