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An Australian recession is still my base case

08 July 2019

Back in February, Chris WatlingCEO and Chief Market Strategist at Longview Economics, wrote that a recession in Australia was likely, and that rates would be cut to zero if this happened. While he acknowledges that a lot has changed in Australia since then - not the least of which being the surprise re-election of the coalition government - his base case remains that a recession is on the way.

"The basic thesis on recession is that housing was in a bust phase, and the bust phase will probably be bigger than 10-15% peak to trough. Obviously we're having a bounce in house prices now that questions that, I personally think it's probably a head-fake."

In the latest episode of The Rules of Investing podcast, Chris discusses his views on Australia in-depth. He also shares why the outlook for the US is more positive, shares his favourite chart in the world today, and discusses eight key asset bubbles globally.

For the original podcast, see HERE.

Topics: video, podcast