Bloomberg Opinion columnist John Authers featured commentary from Harry Colvin, Longview Economics' Head of Asset Allocation, in his recent article, "Brace for a Midterm Market Mess and Opportunity", published on 22nd October 2026.
The article examines the similarities between market conditions in 2018 and 2026, exploring how resilient equity markets, increasingly hawkish Federal Reserve expectations and concentrated investor positioning could contribute to renewed market volatility.
Drawing comparisons with the period preceding the 2018 US midterm elections, Harry highlighted the similarities in equity market performance and investor sentiment:
"There are so many parallels with 2018, aren't there? You had a resilient earnings-led equity market, where forward earnings on the S&P were growing at about 20% year-on-year, and early in the year you had consumer confidence towards the stock market at all-time highs. We're back at those kind of levels. Retail money is all in and fund managers' most crowded trade is long equities"
Harry also pointed to declining global market breadth, with equity market performance increasingly dominated by a relatively small number of stocks. These conditions bear similarities to 2018, when elevated investor optimism and tightening monetary policy preceded by a sharp equity market correction towards the end of the year.
Looking ahead, Harry suggested that investors should prepare for a period of increased volatility, with the potential for opportunities to emerge as monetary policy expectations adjust.
"For the next three to six months, it's a sideways trend and a bounce in volatility. Until we reset rates at the front end"
Authers draws on these observations to explore whether markets could follow a similar trajectory to 2018, when a sharp year-end-sell-off was followed by a strong recovery in 2019 as thee Federal Reserve shifted towards a more accommodative policy stance.
The discussion highlights Longview Economics' ongoing analysis of global macroeconomic conditions, monetary policy and their implications for financial markets.
Read the full Bloomberg Opinion article, "Brace for a Midterm Market Mess and Opportunity", here