The State of Markets: “Equity Markets in 2025”
2025 was a good year for US equities, with the S&P500 ending the year up 16.4% (price return) & the NASDAQ100 up 20.2% (with the Philly SOX performing even better led by AMD, Intel, and Micron amongst others). Despite those strong gains, though, other countries and other asset classes fared better. Silver, even after year end wobbles, closed the year up over 150%; Gold was also strong (+64%), while various equity markets like South Korea, Spain and Mexico were all strong gainers (significantly outperforming the US, especially in USD equivalent terms).
Our tactical equity market views (i.e. ‘1 – 4’ month outlook) will be updated and published early next week. Our strategic (6 month to 2 year) global asset allocation views were updated in late December (with our outlook for 2026). Both portfolios (tactical & strategic) outperformed their respective benchmarks in 2025. The tactical product produced its best outperformance since 2021.
Next week is a busy one for macro data. It’s the first full week of the month and, given the US government is close to catching up with its data release schedule (i.e. post the shutdown last year), then most of the expected major data releases will happen. That includes non-farm payrolls labour market data (at the end of the week), ADP private sector employment data ahead of that on Wednesday, as well as various other key labour market data (see below). Elsewhere, inflation data published in the Eurozone and China (Wednesday & Friday, respectively), as well as German factory orders (Thursday). Key UK data includes monthly household lending data (Monday) and house prices (Thursday).
For a full list of key events next week, in summary and by key economic region, please see email below.
Happy New Year to all.
From the team at Longview Economics.
Key chart: 2025 performance –> various key US equity markets (%)
Upcoming Important Data/Events This Week:
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Events: |
NB despite the re-opening of the US government, some US macro data releases are still delayed (beyond their original publication date). |
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Monday: |
UK net consumer credit, mortgage approvals & M4 money supply (Nov, 9:30am); US ISM manufacturing (Dec, 3pm). |
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Tuesday: |
N/A |
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Wednesday: |
Eurozone headline & core CPI (Dec, 10am); US ADP employment (Dec, 1:15pm); US ISM services (Dec, 3pm). |
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Thursday: |
German factory orders (Nov, 7am); UK Halifax home price index (Dec, 7am). |
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Friday: |
Chinese PPI & CPI (Dec, 1:30am); US nonfarm payrolls, hourly earnings & unemployment data (Dec, 1:30pm); US Michigan Sentiment (January first estimate, 3pm). |
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Key earnings: |
N/A |
Key Research
Daily Dose of Macro & Markets 24th December 2025:
“Japan: Structural Deflation Ahead”
Even the most dependable relationships in markets sometimes break down. Gold, for example, has recently decoupled from its usual (inverse) relationship with the dollar and real yields (proxied by 10-year TIPS).
Another relationship now drawing attention is between USD-JPY and the US-Japan yield differential. After tracking closely for years, the YEN has weakened despite the BoJ’s ongoing rate hiking cycle (and its tightening relative to Fed policy), fig 1.
Key North American Macro Data & Events:
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Events: |
NB despite the re-opening of the US government, some US macro data releases are still delayed (beyond their original publication date). Fed’s Barkin speaks on economic outlook (Tues, 1pm) & repeats outlook (Fri, 6:35pm). |
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Monday: |
US ISM manufacturing (Dec, 3pm); US vehicle sales (Dec, 7pm). |
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Tuesday: |
Canadian S&P Global manufacturing sector PMI (Dec, 2:30pm); US S&P manufacturing sector PMI (December final estimate, 2:45pm). |
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Wednesday: |
US ADP employment (Dec, 1:15pm); US ISM services (Dec, 3pm); US JOLTS job openings (Nov, 3pm); US factory orders (Oct, 3pm); US durable goods orders (October final estimate, 3pm); Canadian Ivey PMI (Dec, 3pm). |
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Thursday: |
US Challenger job cuts (Dec, 12:30pm); US imports, exports & trade balance (Oct, 1:30pm); US weekly jobless claims (1:30pm); US nonfarm productivity & unit labour costs (Q3 first estimate, 1:30pm); US business inventories (Oct, 3pm); US New York Fed 1 year inflation expectations (Dec, 4pm); US consumer credit (Oct, 8pm). |
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Friday: |
Canadian employment data (change in employment, unemployment rate & participation rate, for Dec, 1:30pm); US nonfarm payrolls, hourly earnings & unemployment data (Dec, 1:30pm); US housing starts & building permits (Oct, 1:30pm); US Michigan Sentiment (January first estimate, 3pm); US household change in net worth (Q3, 5pm). |
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Key earnings: |
Fast Retailing ADR (Thurs). |
Fig B: US Nonfarm payrolls vs. ADP (both 6 months smoothed)
Key European Macro Data & Events
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Events: |
N/A |
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Monday: |
Spanish unemployment rate (Dec, 8am). |
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Tuesday: |
French headline & core CPI (December first estimate, 7:45am); HCOB service sector PMIs for Spain (8:15am), Italy (8:45am), France (8:50am), Germany (8:55am) & Eurozone (9am) – all December final estimates apart from Spain & Italy; German CPI for regional (9am), headline & core (1pm) – December first estimates. |
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Wednesday: |
German retail sales (Nov, 7am); French consumer confidence (Dec, 7:45am); HCOB construction PMI for Germany & Eurozone (Dec, 8:30am); German unemployment data (Dec, 8:55am); headline & core CPI for Italy (10am) & Eurozone (10am) – all December first estimates. |
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Thursday: |
German factory orders (Nov, 7am); French current account balance (Nov, 7:45am); Italian unemployment rate (Nov, 9am); ECB 1 & 3 yr CPI expectations (Nov, 9am); Eurozone consumer, economic, industrial & service sentiment (December final estimate, 10am); Eurozone PPI (Nov, 10am); Eurozone unemployment rate (Nov, 10am). |
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Friday: |
German industrial production, imports, exports & trade balance (Nov, 7am); French consumer spending and industrial production (Nov, 7:45am); Spanish industrial production (Nov, 8am); Italian retail sales (Oct, 9am); Eurozone retail sales (Nov, 10am). |
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Key earnings: |
N/A |
Fig C: Eurozone headline & core CPI (Y-o-Y %)
Key UK Macro Data & Events
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Events: |
N/A |
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Monday: |
Net consumer credit, mortgage ‘approvals and lending’ & M4 money supply (Nov, 9:30am). |
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Tuesday: |
BRC shop price index (Dec, 12:01am); new car sales (Dec, 9am); S&P service sector PMI (December final estimate, 9:30am). |
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Wednesday: |
S&P construction sector PMI (Dec, 9:30am). |
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Thursday: |
Halifax home price index (Dec, 7am). |
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Friday: |
N/A |
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Key earnings: |
N/A |
Fig D: UK consumer credit growth (billion)
Key Asia-Pacific Macro Data & Events
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Events: |
N/A |
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Monday: |
Japanese S&P Global manufacturing sector PMI (December final estimate, 12:30am); Chinese Caixin service sector PMI (Dec, 1:45am); Australian S&P Global service sector PMI (December final estimate, 10pm); Japanese monetary base (Dec, 11:30pm). |
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Tuesday: |
N/A |
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Wednesday: |
Japanese S&P Global services sector PMI (December final estimate, 12:30am); Australian headline CPI (Nov, 12:30am); Australian building approvals (Nov, 12:30am). |
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Thursday: |
Australian imports, exports & trade balance (Nov, 12:30am); Japanese consumer confidence (Dec, 5am); Japanese household spending (Nov, 11:30pm). |
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Friday: |
Chinese PPI & CPI (Dec, 1:30am); Japanese ESRI leading index (November first estimate, 5am). |
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Key earnings: |
N/A |
Fig E: Chinese Caixin manufacturing & service sector PMIs
This Week:
No research this week given holiday season.
Last Week:
Daily Dose of Macro & Markets:
Daily Dose of Macro & Markets 24th December 2025:
“Japan: Structural Deflation Ahead”
Daily Dose of Macro & Markets 23rd December 2025:
“Shelter Disinflation – Signal or Noise?”
Weekly Risk Appetite Gauge:
Weekly Assessment of the Market’s ‘Appetite for Risk’, 22nd December 2025:
‘A Late Arrival from Santa?’