The State of Markets: “Bitcoin Crash – What Next?”
Panic has been building in markets this week. Several US indices broke below their 50 day moving averages; intraday price swings widened; volatility readings moved higher (e.g. see the VIX); and a number of cryptocurrencies fell sharply — in some cases effectively crashing, reportedly on a ‘liquidation wave’ of leveraged long positions. With that, Bitcoin is down more than 10% week-to-date and roughly 30% below its early-October high. That sell-off is troubling, as Bitcoin is a key gauge of liquidity in markets (and typically highly correlated with US equities – see key chart below).
The key question, therefore, is whether weakness in risk assets persists next week. As of the time of writing, US equities have bounced sharply intra-day on comments by the Fed’s Williams, who said he’d support a decision to cut rates next month. This morning, markets were pricing more than a 70% chance of a cut next month (up from 40% yesterday).
There is a strong housing theme in the US macro data next week, with house prices and pending home sales on Tuesday, which will be followed by housing starts, building permits, and new home sales on Wednesday. Elsewhere, retail sales and PPI for September are due on Tuesday, and the Fed releases the Beige Book on Wednesday (although some data may still be delayed, despite the government re-opening). US markets are closed on Thursday for Thanksgiving.
In the UK, all eyes will be on Chancellor Reeves’ budget on Wednesday. Please see below for a full list of upcoming macro data, earnings, and events.
Key chart: Bitcoin price (USD) vs. S&P500
Upcoming Important Data/Events This Week:
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Events: |
NB despite the re-opening of the US government, some of next week’s macro data releases are still likely to be delayed. Speech by ECB’s Lagarde at AI event in Bratislava (Mon, 3pm); national holiday in Japan on account of Labour Day (Mon); UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves presents the UK Budget (Wed, 12:30pm); national holiday in the US on account of Thanksgiving (Thurs). |
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Monday: |
German IFO business climate (Nov, 9am). |
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Tuesday: |
US retail sales (Sept, 1:30pm); US headline & core PPI (Sept, 1:30pm). |
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Wednesday: |
US personal income & spending including headline & core PCE (Oct, 3pm). |
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Thursday: |
Eurozone M3 money supply (Oct, 9am). |
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Friday: |
Headline CPI – November first estimates for France (7:45am), Spain (8am), Italy (10am) & Germany (1pm). |
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Key earnings: |
Alibaba (Tues). |
Key Research
Longview on Friday, 21st November 2025:
“US Dollar, Fed Liquidity, & Growing EM Tailwinds"
Yesterday we had the first update on the labour market from the BLS (since the government re-opened after a record-long shutdown).
On the surface, the headline employment number was encouraging, with 119k jobs created in September. That was above the consensus (of +50k), and also above the most recent estimates of ‘breakeven employment’ (32k – 82k per month), i.e. the number of new jobs needed to keep the unemployment rate stable.
Beneath the surface, though, the labour market continues to deteriorate. In particular, there was a net downward revision in jobs of 33k for the prior two months which puts average monthly job growth in the past 5 months at just 38.6k (the lower end of the breakeven range). With that, and more importantly, the unemployment rate rose to 4.4% (up from 4.3% in August and above the consensus, which was also 4.3%). Unemployment therefore remains on a clear upward trend, which is consistent with other labour market indicators, like this one below (FIG 1)…
Key North American Macro Data & Events:
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Events: |
NB despite the re-opening of the US government, some of next week’s macro data releases are still likely to be delayed. Fed’s annual revision to industrial production (Mon, 5pm); Fed releases Beige Book (Wed, 7pm); national holiday in the US on account of Thanksgiving (Thurs). |
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Monday: |
US Chicago Fed national activity (Oct, 1:30pm); US Dallas Fed manufacturing sector activity (Nov, 3:30pm). |
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Tuesday: |
US Philadelphia Fed service sector activity (Nov, 1:30pm); US retail sales (Sept, 1:30pm); US headline & core PPI (Sept, 1:30pm); US FHFA house price index (Sept, 2pm); US S&P/Case-Shiller 20-city & national house prices (Sept, 2pm); US Conference Board Consumer Confidence (Nov, 3pm); US Richmond Fed manufacturing index (Nov, 3pm); US business inventories (Aug, 3pm); pending home sales (Oct, 3pm); US Dallas Fed service sector activity (Nov, 3:30pm). |
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Wednesday: |
US durable goods orders (September first estimate, 1:30pm); US housing starts & building permits (Sept, 1:30pm); US weekly jobless claims (1:30pm); US Chicago PMI (Nov, 2:45pm); US personal income & spending including headline & core PCE (Oct, 3pm); US new home sales, building inventories & advanced goods trade balance (Sept). |
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Thursday: |
Canadian employment change & current account balance (Sept, 1:30pm). |
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Friday: |
Canadian GDP (Sept, 1:30pm). |
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Key earnings: |
Analog Devices, Dell Tech, Autodesk, Workday (Tues); Deere&Company (Wed). |
Fig B: US housing starts & building permits
Key European Macro Data & Events
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Events: |
Speeches by ECB’s Lagarde at AI event in Bratislava (Mon, 3pm), Villeroy in Paris (Tues, 8am), Makhlouf & Sleijpen in Dublin (Tues, 9:15am), Cipollone in Dublin (Tues, 2pm), Muller in Tallinn (Wed, 9am), Vujcic in Copenhagen (Wed, 2pm), Lane in Paris (Wed, 4:10pm); ECB publishes financial stability review (Wed, 9am); ECB publishes account of Oct 30th rate decision (Thurs, 12:30pm). |
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Monday: |
German IFO business climate (Nov, 9am). |
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Tuesday: |
Eurozone new car registrations (Oct, 5am); German GDP (Q3 final estimate, 7am); Spanish PPI (Oct, 8am). |
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Wednesday: |
N/A |
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Thursday: |
German GfK consumer confidence (Dec, 7am); Italian ISTAT consumer & manufacturing confidence (Nov, 9am); Eurozone M3 money supply (Oct, 9am); Eurozone consumer confidence (November final estimate, 10am); Italian industrial sales (Sept, 10am). |
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Friday: |
Headline CPI – November first estimates for France (7:45am), Spain (8am), Italy (10am) & Germany (1pm); German import price index (Oct, 7am); German retail sales (Oct, 7am); French GDP, consumer spending & PPI (Q3 first estimate & Oct, 7:45am); French consumer confidence (Nov, 7:45am); Spanish retail sales (Oct, 8am); German unemployment (Nov, 8:55am); Spanish current account balance (Sept, 9am); ECB 1 & 3 year CPI expectations (Oct, 9am); Italian GDP (Q3 final estimate, 9am). |
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Key earnings: |
N/A |
Fig C: German IFO business climate (index)
Key UK Macro Data & Events
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Events: |
UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves presents UK Budget (Wed, 12:30pm); speech by BOE’s Greene (Thurs, 4pm). |
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Monday: |
N/A |
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Tuesday: |
CBI distributive trade survey (Nov, 11am). |
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Wednesday: |
N/A |
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Thursday: |
N/A |
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Friday: |
Lloyds business barometer (Nov, 12:01am); Nationwide house prices (Nov, 7am). |
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Key earnings: |
N/A |
Fig D: Lloyds business barometer – shown with UK recession bands
Key Asia-Pacific Macro Data & Events
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Events: |
National holiday in Japan on account of Labour Day (Mon); speech by BOJ’s board Noguchi in Ohita (Thurs, 1:30pm). |
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Monday: |
N/A |
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Tuesday: |
Japanese department sales (Oct, 5:30am); Japanese PPI (Oct, 11:50pm). |
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Wednesday: |
Australian CPI (Oct, 12:30am); Japanese ESRI consumer confidence (September final estimate, 5am); Japanese machine tool orders (October final estimate, 6am). |
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Thursday: |
Chinese industrial profits (Oct, 1:30am); Japanese jobless rate (Oct, 11:30pm); Japanese core CPI (Nov, 11:30pm); Japanese retail sales (Oct, 11:50pm); Japanese industrial production (October first estimate, 11:50pm). |
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Friday: |
Australian private sector credit (Oct, 12:30am); Japanese housing starts (Oct, 5am). |
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Key earnings: |
Alibaba (Tues). |
Fig E: Japanese CPI (headline & core, Y-o-Y %)
This Week:
Longview on Friday, 21st November 2025:
“US Dollar, Fed Liquidity, & Growing EM Tailwinds”
Monthly Global Asset Allocation No. 72, 20th November 2025:
“Chinese Equities: Reduce Strategic OW a.k.a. Policy Pushing on a String”
Longview ‘Tactical’ Alert No. 95, 19th November 2025:
“Assessing The Pullback a.k.a. The Case for (Tentatively) BUYing Equities”
Daily Dose of Macro & Markets:
Daily Dose of Macro & Markets 20th November 2025:
“YEN – The Pressure Valve Is Opening”
Daily Dose of Macro & Markets 19th November 2025:
“UK Inflation – Price Pressures Easing”
Daily Dose of Macro & Markets 18th November 2025:
“Europe is Deregulating!”
Weekly Risk Appetite Gauge:
'Weekly Risk Appetite Gauge', 17th November 2025:
“US Equities - near term Base Building?”
Last Week:
Longview on Friday, 14th November 2025:
“The Changing Shape of the Bull Market”
Commodity Fundamentals Report No. 188, 12th November 2025:
“Copper: The Next Cyclical Upswing”
Daily Dose of Macro & Markets:
Daily Dose of Macro & Markets 13th November 2025:
“How Weak is the US Labour Market – Really?”
Daily Dose of Macro & Markets 12th November 2025:
“Growing Case for More UK Rate Cuts”
Daily Dose of Macro & Markets 11th November 2025:
Weekly Risk Appetite Gauge:
'Weekly Risk Appetite Gauge', 10th November 2025:
“Short Term Models -> Back on BUY”