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Daily RAG Recommendation Sample, 5th March 2024

The Daily RAG publication comes out every business day before 9:30am London time, and includes a 1 – 2 week LONG or SHORT recommendation on equity index futures, typically S&P500 futures. The publication also features an overview of global market movements, economic and political events, key macro data releases and a summary of the message generated by our suite of proprietary models.

"Risk Reward Changing; Stay LONG (But keep tight stop loss)"

"...Given equity markets have been rallying hard in recent trading sessions (and, indeed, recent weeks), short and medium-term models are increasingly starting to tilt towards SELL. Shortest term RAG, for example, is now on SELL; RAG1 reached SELL yesterday; the Russell 2000 put to call indicator is back on SELL (FIG 2f); the CBOE version is close to SELL (as is the NDX put to call model – FIG 2e). The short-term risk appetite scoring system (as well as the combined short & medium-term risk appetite scoring systems) are also both close to SELL (FIGs 1b & 2). Added to which, the NDX momentum model, having been on BUY in mid/late February is now again close to SELL (other technical scoring systems are also at high levels/close to SELL, 
FIGs 2b – 2d).

As such, while not all models are on SELL, the case for staying LONG is becoming less compelling (i.e. riskier). The divergence of key asset prices (i.e. Apple vs. Bitcoin) adds to that sense of reduced conviction. In order, therefore, to reflect those growing concerns, we recommend staying LONG but retaining a tight stop (for the further potential limited upside that is likely available, until there’s a clear across the board SELL message)."

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The Short View Sample, 16th January 2024

The Short View is primarily about recent, short term market movements in key asset classes (equities, bonds, rates, currencies, commodities and volatility). Much of the thinking in the product is based on positioning and sentiment shifts. The product draws upon the Commodities Futures Trading Commission’s (CFTC) ‘Commitments Of Traders’ report (COT), which is published each week. We use the data in this report that relates to speculators, and include it as part of our analysis of recent market price action across key asset classes (and then outline our conclusions in the Short View publication).

"OIL: Breakout Ahead"

"Price action in oil has been encouraging for the bulls in recent months (although less so today). In particular, the Brent price tested, and rallied from, a key level ($71.60/barrel) last month. That price had been tested (and held) on five prior occasions (in March, May, and June last year), see FIG A. As a general rule of thumb, when key levels are tested and held multiple times, they are considered to be strong technical levels. Of interest, price action is similar in the WTI benchmark (with futures testing/rallying from around 
$67.60/barrel).

Since rallying from that level, oil prices have formed a pennant pattern (with lower highs and higher lows in December and January), FIG A. Broadly speaking, that pattern has formed just below the 50 day moving average (the key technical resistance level for oil).

With oil prices now at the end of their pennant, the key question becomes: Which way will they break?"

Trades

Recommended Global Macro Fund Update Sample, 26th April 2022:

‘Macro Trade Recommendations’ highlight trading opportunities with a one to six month time horizon across a variety of key asset classes, including: Government bonds; currencies; rates; equities; and commodities. The product details the macro, markets and model rationale behind the recommended trade and also shows how to structure it (in terms of which instrument to use).

"Move LONG USD-CNH"

"The Chinese currency has been remarkably strong over the past two years (rallying 14% from its low in early 2020 to its recent high in March this year).

In the past week, though, the CNH has begun to sell off sharply. In our view, that sell-off is the start of a more prolonged phase of weakness, underpinned by a number of key macro factors. We therefore recommend moving LONG USD-CNH with both (i) a call and (ii) a long futures position"

taa

Tactical Equity Asset Allocation No. 215, 2nd December 2021:

The Tactical Equity Asset Allocation is an explicit recommendation on the outlook for the S&P500 Index on a one to four month horizon. Those recommendations are based on our suite of medium-term quantitative models, as well as our analysis of the US and global economic cycle.

"Start re-BUILDing Tactical Equity OW Positions (despite some macro risks)"

“On balance, therefore, and while model signals can be early during bouts of significant market stress, the message of the models is increasingly clear. That is, the models favour re-instating tactical LONG positions given that fear levels are high, equities are oversold, and excessive exuberance has unwound...

To balance those risk factors with the message of the models, though, we recommend (slowly) starting to BUILD tactical OW equity positions, i.e. with modest OW positions at this juncture.”

QAA

Extract from Quarterly Asset Allocation No. 46, 15th June 2022:

The Quarterly Global Asset Allocation is a recommendation for a global portfolio comprised of equities, bonds, commodities, credit and cash with a six to twenty four month investment horizon. The recommendation is based on our assessment of the global economic cycle, the current key investment/macro themes, our assessment of market valuation and analysis of other key factors which drive medium to long term investment cycles. Each quarter there is a section with a detailed analysis of the economic cycle in the USA, Eurozone and China. There is also a section dedicated to valuation across all key asset classes, as well as a front section with detailed recommendations and rationale.

"Eurozone: Recession or Soft Patch?"

"...There’s currently a long worry list when it comes to the European macro outlook. In particular, given the sharp widening of peripheral spreads (e.g. BTPs over Bunds), stress in Europe’s financial system has been building. Linked to that, credit conditions in the banking system have started to tighten (in certain countries) while the recession case is starting to grow. Real wages, for example, are shrinking, money supply growth is slowing sharply, leading indicators have rolled over (with some at recession warning levels), and consumer confidence has fallen to low levels..."

gmr

Global Macro Report Sample, 25th March 2022:

In our Global Macro Reports we identify and explore key macro themes & the outlook for major economies. The reports frequently examine the US, Eurozone & China and, occasionally, other major economies.

"Multiple Cashflow Shocks: Can UK Households Cope?"

"...UK consumers are facing multiple price shocks including: i) a rise in national insurance tax (from April this year, albeit in part mitigated by the Chancellor’s announcements yesterday); ii) rising mortgage costs; iii) higher petrol and
other transportation prices; iv) higher electricity prices; & v) higher food prices...

In aggregate we estimate that those shocks will drain between £45bn and £50bn from UK household cashflows in 2022. The key question is, therefore, whether households have enough spare cash and cashflow to absorb those extra costs..."

ll

Longview Letter Sample, 26th May 2022:

Longview Letters look in depth at key long term themes which relate to the outlook for global financial markets & the global economy. These thematic pieces aim to provoke thinking and often form the basis for podcasts and newspaper editorials.

"Is This The 1970's? Really? a.k.a. We're All Monetarists now"

“...Most of those key factors, though, are markedly different to today. In particular, there are no price controls, no significant increase in the cost of oil (especially as a % of GDP), no dollar devaluation, low unemployment, and no sharp increase in money velocity (which is currently weak)…

…All of which suggests that inflation will be less sticky this time, especially as money supply growth slows (as it currently is doing)…”

cfr

Commodity Fundamentals Report No. 127, 5th April 2022:

Commodities Fundamentals Reports provide deep analysis of the supply and demand dynamics for key commodities. We provide regular updates to our outlook on oil, gold, and copper; and infrequent analysis on silver, iron ore, agricultural commodities and energy.

"The Coming Oil Glut a.k.a. For How Long Will Prices Remain High"

“… In our view, if oil prices remain at current levels, there will be a significant supply response over the coming 12-18 months which will generate a global supply surplus/rising oil inventories in 2023...

… Indeed, while we expect small/medium-sized deficits to continue throughout this year, there are four key factors that we expect will drive a sizeable surplus in the global oil supply-demand balance by mid-2023..."

lvof

LV on Friday Sample, 20th May 2022:

The Longview on Friday brings together every aspect of Longview's weekly analysis and strategic investment advice. The report updates key themes, outlines crucial trading advice and drills deep into the most relevant market movements and macro trends. The Longview on Friday has successfully predicted and remained ahead of key global trends. The report identifies the key themes that will drive global markets in the short and long term.

"So, is it a Bear Market?"

"With markets down 20% or so and a relentlessness to the selling, that question is front and centre of most investors’ minds. That is: Is this a bear market? Or is it simply a readjustment of market levels to reflect a repricing of interest rates?

To be clear, we’re not talking about the 20% ‘rule of thumb’ for bear markets (which seems somewhat arbitrary). What we’re referring to is: Have US and/or global equity markets entered a sustained and enduring downtrend (which would typically last multiple quarters or years)?..."

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